Poll: Schmitt leads Valentine in U.S. Senate race

Published: Sep. 19, 2022 at 6:22 PM CDT|Updated: Oct. 12, 2022 at 1:45 PM CDT
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ST. LOUIS (KMOV) – Exclusive polling shows Republican Eric Schmitt ahead of Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine for the open U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.

The SurveyUSA poll has Schmitt defeating Valentine by an 11-point margin to succeed Republican Roy Blunt, who is retiring. If the vote were held today, Schmitt would take 47%, Valentine would have 36% and 4% of respondents would vote for another candidate. Of those surveyed, 14% said they were still undecided.

Among men, Schmitt leads by 19 points, but he leads by 4 points among women. The two candidates run evenly among voters under age 50, but Schmitt has an advantage among those over age 50. Schmitt leads by 20 points among white voters. Valentine leads by 58 points among African American voters.

Schmitt leads in southeast Missouri, southwest Missouri, and the northern part of the state. Valentine leads in Kansas City and in greater St. Louis.

Schmitt leads in voters who feel inflation, the economy, immigration and border security are the most important issues this fall. Valentine leads those who said abortion is the most important issue this election. Those who support the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade are more likely to vote for Schmitt, while those who oppose the decision support Valentine.

News 4 reached out to both campaigns regarding the poll results.

Valentine’s Communication Director, Jacob Long, sent the following statement:

“It’s not exactly a surprise that someone who’s been climbing political ladders for 20 years would be better known than someone who’s never run for office and represents a clear break from politics as usual. What this poll demonstrates is that a significant number of voters remain undecided, leaving plenty of room for our campaign to close the gap.

“Trudy Busch Valentine is a nurse, mother, grandmother, and lifelong Missourian who isn’t running for ego, power, money, or fame. She can’t be bought and isn’t beholden to special interests. She’s running to fix a broken Washington, bring people together to get things done, and put our government back on the side of working families. She won’t push a partisan agenda and will serve with honesty, transparency, decency, compassion, and common-sense. She’ll be nobody’s Senator but yours!

“Over the next 50 days, we have an aggressive campaign based on directly engaging with voters in every corner of this state and are confident the voters will see the clear choice before them this November.

“Career politician Eric Schmitt is an election-denier who bragged about triggering one of the country’s most extreme abortion bans and aided in the sale of hundreds of thousands of acres of Missouri farmland to Communist China. Missourians deserve so much more in a Senator.”

Attorney General Eric Schmitt, candidate for U.S. Senate said, “Yet another poll confirms that Missourians want a Senator who fights for the needs of working-class families, not an out-of-touch Heiress who wants to double down on more reckless spending that sent food and energy prices surging in the first place.”

About the SurveyUSA poll

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Missouri adults online between Sept. 14 and Sept. 18, 2022. Of those, 830 respondents were identified as registered voters. Of the registered voters, 670 were determined to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election and were polled.

The sample was provided by Lucid Holdings LLC. of New Orleans. The pool was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.

The polling was conducted exclusively for GRAY Television’s Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; and KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA), and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.